UNITAR, Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies present

Electoral Risk Forecasting: Lessons from the Edo Governorship

Bukola Bankole is a leading civic and electoral governance expert reshaping democracy in Nigeria and West Africa. As founding Executive Director of Kimpact Development Initiative, he pioneered the ESRA Methodology for electoral risk forecasting and has led nationally acclaimed programs on election security, civic tech, and political accountability. With over 15 years of experience in electoral reforms, Bukola now advises Nigeria's National Assembly on electoral policy and brings regional insight into civic resilience, youth-led governance, and digital democracy across Africa.

The Election Security Risk Analysis (ESRA) is an in-depth, holistic and pre-election assessment of all factors of the society that could give rise to electoral violence. The goal is to create an effective electoral violence mitigation plan that will map out hotspot areas, identify early warning signals, mobilize citizen monitoring and mitigation efforts; ultimately, providing relevant institutions, especially INEC, security agencies, and civil society organizations (CSOs), with information that could assist them in ensuring credible electoral process.